Measures of Overall Model Fit - In general, the Beaufort assessment model (BAM) fit well to the available data. Predicted length compositions from the commercial handline and discards from the commercial and headboat fleets were reasonably close to observed data in most years, as were predicted age compositions (Figure 3). The model was configured to fit observed commercial and recreational removals closely (Figures 4–9). Fits to indices of abundance generally captured the observed trends but not all annual fluctuations (Figures 10–13). - Status of the Stock and Fishery - Estimated time series of stock status SSB/SSBF30% showed general decline throughout the beginning of the assessment period, a leveling off, and then a modest increase since 2010 (Figure 37, Table 10). Base-run estimates of spawning biomass have remained below the threshold (MSST) since the early-1970s. Current stock status was estimated in the base run to be SSB/SSBF30% = 0.15 (Table 24), indicating that the stock has not yet recovered to SSBF30%. Median values from the MCB analysis indicated similar results SSB/SSBF30% = 0.16. The uncertainty analysis suggested that the terminal estimate of stock status is robust (Figures 38, 39). Of the MCB runs, 100% indicated that the stock was below SSBF30% in 2014. Age structure estimated by the base run showed fewer older fish in the last few decades than the (equilibrium) age structure expected at LF30% (Figure 40). However, there is improvement in the terminal year (2014), particularly for ages younger than ten. The estimated time series of F/F30% suggests that overfishing has occurred throughout most of the assessment period (Table 10, Figure 37). Current fishery status in the terminal year, with current F represented by the geometric mean from 2012–2014, was estimated by the base run to be F/F30% = 2.7 (Table 24). The fishery status was also robust (Figures 38, 39). Of the MCB runs, approximately 99.1% agreed with the base run that the stock is currently experiencing overfishing. - Interpretation - Status indicators in the continuity run (318), agree with the surplus production model from SEDAR 24 that South Atlantic Red Snapper were overfished and undergoing overfishing in 2009 (Table 32). However, in the updated continuity run (319), which is identical to the continuity run except for the 2010-2014 addition of landings data from 2010-2014, the surplus production model suggests that the stock is no longer overfished or undergoing overfishing. Despite several differences between the updated continuity run and the best configuration run (320), described above, most of the parameter estimates and status indicators are similar (Table 32). However the model estimate of B1/K is much lower in the best configuration run, driven by a lower estimate of B1. After observing this difference, run 323 was configured by taking the best configuration run and fixing B1/K at the estimate from the continuity run to investigate potential influence. Fixing B1/K at this much lower value had little effect on status or most parameters, but caused the estimate of B1 to go much lower. As described above, the only data that go into a surplus production model are biomass of removals and abundance indices. Therefore such a model does not make use of many other sources of information such as sex, maturity, growth, fecundity, or population age and size structure. Because such data are available for Red Snapper, a model that uses them would be preferred for a detailed assessment on which to base management. - Surplus Production Model - Model Fit - For the best configuration run, model predictions underestimated observed values for the headboat index for the first ten years of the time series (1976-1985; Figure 63). They also underestimated the commercial index during the first five years of that series (1993-1997), while overestimating the headboat index for those same years. The model provided a very poor fit to the headboat-at-sea discard index (2006-2014) but produced a much better fit to the upweighted CVID index (2005-2014). The model did not fit high index values in 2008 and 2009 very closely, but predicted a slight decline from 2007-2009 followed by an increasing trend from 2010 to 2014. - Surplus Production Model - Status of the Stock and Fishery - In the current best configuration run of the surplus production model, B/BMSY is greater than one, suggesting that the South Atlantic stock of Red Snapper is not overfished. The 95% bootstrap percentile confidence intervals for B/BMSY do not contain one (Figure 65). Since the surplus production model estimates that F/FMSY is less than one, the stock is considered to not be undergoing overfishing (Table 32; Figure 66). The 95% bootstrap percentile confidence intervals for F/FMSY do not contain one (Figure 65).