Overall Assessment Results
Exploitation boundaries in relation to high long-term yield, low risk of depletion of production potential and considering ecosystem effectsFishing mortality is in the range of the target mortality of the proposed management plan, and this is expected to give a high long-term yield and a low risk of stock depletion.
Comparison with previous assessment and adviceThere was no agreed assessment in 2006, but the data basis has improved and an assessment was agreed upon this year (figure 5.4.30.3). The basis for the advice has changed: last year it was based on
status quo TAC, this year the advice is based on the proposed management plan.
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| Image |
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| Image |
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| Image |
Figure 5.4.30.1 Herring in Via (N). Landings, fishing mortality, recruitment and SSB.
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| Graphs |
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| Graphs |
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| Graphs |
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| Graphs |
Figure 5.4.30.2 Herring in VIa (N). Stock and recruitment; Yield and precautionary approach.
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| Graphs |
Figure 5.4.30.3 Herring in VIa (N). Historical performance of the assessments. Note: assessments prior to 2001 not comparable with recent assessments.
Landing tableTable 5.4.30.1 Herring in VIa (N). Catch in tonnes by country, 1983–2006. These figures do not in all cases correspond to the official statistics and cannot be used for management purposes.
Landing table*WG estimate for 1997 has been revised according to the Bayesian assessment (see text Section 5.1.3 of 2000 report).
$Revised at HAWG 2007.
Table 5.4.30.2 Herring in Division VIa (North).
Stock summary
|
Year
|
Recruitment
|
SSB
|
Landings
|
Mean F
|
|
-
|
Age 1
|
-
|
-
|
Ages 3-6
|
|
|
thousands
|
tonnes
|
tonnes
|
|
|
1958
|
2212700
|
213788
|
59669
|
0.3105
|
|
1959
|
2207110
|
229855
|
65221
|
0.2810
|
|
1960
|
647460
|
266482
|
63759
|
0.1795
|
|
1961
|
1317900
|
266665
|
46353
|
0.1206
|
|
1962
|
2357340
|
255902
|
58195
|
0.1927
|
|
1963
|
2154720
|
279650
|
49030
|
0.1730
|
|
1964
|
993210
|
325431
|
64234
|
0.1454
|
|
1965
|
7931830
|
331998
|
68669
|
0.1519
|
|
1966
|
1073170
|
443967
|
100619
|
0.1850
|
|
1967
|
2509730
|
473104
|
90400
|
0.1843
|
|
1968
|
4107180
|
448629
|
84614
|
0.1400
|
|
1969
|
3000720
|
484835
|
107170
|
0.2366
|
|
1970
|
3441280
|
451154
|
165930
|
0.3534
|
|
1971
|
9575740
|
322203
|
207167
|
0.7801
|
|
1972
|
2676160
|
449079
|
164756
|
0.3621
|
|
1973
|
1075080
|
388257
|
210270
|
0.6026
|
|
1974
|
1674990
|
205535
|
178160
|
0.9531
|
|
1975
|
2116660
|
108162
|
114001
|
0.9061
|
|
1976
|
614530
|
74599
|
93642
|
1.0609
|
|
1977
|
626140
|
53217
|
41341
|
0.9779
|
|
1978
|
915990
|
50015
|
22156
|
0.6483
|
|
1979
|
1219400
|
76219
|
60
|
0.0007
|
|
1980
|
892140
|
126093
|
306
|
0.0004
|
|
1981
|
1667530
|
133595
|
51420
|
0.3585
|
|
1982
|
777670
|
111549
|
92360
|
0.6683
|
|
1983
|
3036180
|
82975
|
63523
|
0.7033
|
|
1984
|
1152680
|
123173
|
56012
|
0.5044
|
|
1985
|
1214240
|
152361
|
39142
|
0.3046
|
|
1986
|
904610
|
138659
|
70764
|
0.5066
|
|
1987
|
2148730
|
129575
|
44360
|
0.3274
|
|
1988
|
927030
|
155111
|
35591
|
0.2729
|
|
1989
|
880110
|
172862
|
34026
|
0.2369
|
|
1990
|
438460
|
164407
|
44693
|
0.3316
|
|
1991
|
384680
|
133997
|
28529
|
0.2442
|
|
1992
|
799660
|
110473
|
28985
|
0.2706
|
|
1993
|
602380
|
105026
|
31778
|
0.2373
|
|
1994
|
855320
|
96351
|
24430
|
0.2216
|
|
1995
|
668080
|
77034
|
29575
|
0.2562
|
|
1996
|
866000
|
123385
|
26105
|
0.1668
|
|
1997
|
1538700
|
79138
|
35233
|
0.4801
|
|
1998
|
482370
|
103762
|
33353
|
0.4445
|
|
1999
|
307380
|
87029
|
29736
|
0.3089
|
|
2000
|
1726800
|
75351
|
18322
|
0.2065
|
|
2001
|
955630
|
121998
|
24556
|
0.2303
|
|
2002
|
921180
|
137261
|
32914
|
0.2476
|
|
2003
|
363590
|
128104
|
28081
|
0.2288
|
|
2004
|
259390
|
110412
|
25021
|
0.2002
|
|
2005
|
168210
|
88261
|
14129
|
0.1264
|
|
2006
|
112240
|
77787
|
27346
|
0.2755
|
|
2007
|
604980*
|
74047
|
|
|
|
Average
|
1602100
|
188370
|
61749
|
0.3532
|
* Geometric mean for the years 1989–2005.
Reference Point
Reference pointsUnchanged since 2004
Yield and spawning biomass per Recruit F-reference points
Reference points
|
|
Fish Mort
|
Yield/R
|
SSB/R
|
|
|
Ages 3–6
|
|
|
|
Average last 3 years
|
0.20
|
0.04
|
0.16
|
|
Fmax
|
N/A
|
-
|
-
|
|
F0.1
|
0.18
|
0.03
|
0.18
|
|
Fmed
|
0.22
|
0.04
|
0.15
|
Management evaluations suggested an F
msy = 0.25.
Projection
Short-term implicationsOutlook for 2008Basis: F (2007)= 0.46; SSB (2007) = 66 510 t; landings (2007) = 34 000t (TAC constraint).
Outlook for 2008
|
Rationale
|
Catches (2008)
|
Basis
|
F(2008)
|
SSB(2009)
|
% TAC change 1)
|
|
Zero catch
|
0
|
F=0
|
F=0
|
96900
|
-100%
|
|
Fint
2)
|
15003
|
F=0.2
|
F=0.2
|
75403
|
-56%
|
|
Flt
3)
= Fmsy
|
18369
|
F=0.25
|
F=0.25
|
70914
|
-46%
|
|
Proportion F
|
21594
|
F= Flt*1.2
|
F=0.30
|
66730
|
-36%
|
|
Proportion F
|
24685
|
F= Flt*1.4
|
F=0.35
|
62828
|
-27%
|
|
Proportion F
|
27647
|
F= Flt*1.6
|
F=0.40
|
59189
|
-19%
|
|
F 2007
|
31036
|
F=0.46
|
F=0.46
|
55149
|
-9%
|
Weights in ‘000 tonnes. Shaded scenarios are not considered consistent with the precautionary approach.
1) TAC 2008 relative to TAC 2007.
2) F
int is the intermediate F of the suggested management plan.
3) F
lt is the long-term F of the suggested management plan.
Scientific Advice
Single-stock exploitation boundariesExploitation boundaries in relation to existing management plansFishing according to the proposed management plan would imply catches up to 15 000 tonnes. The proposal was evaluated and found to be consistent with the precautionary approach.
Exploitation boundaries in relation to precautionary considerationsPrecautionary reference points for fishing mortality have not been defined for this stock. Any management measure should have a high probability of avoiding B
lim.
Conclusion on exploitation boundariesIn the absence of exploitation boundaries in relation to precautionary limits ICES recommends to fish according to the proposed management plan.
Management considerationsThere has been considerable uncertainty in the level of landings from this area in the past. Recent revisions to catch data have reduced some of this uncertainty. Enforcement has improved since 2005 and catch figures are more accurate. In 2006 the stock was more heavily exploited than it has been since 1999. This recent increased F is associated with increased enforcement and reduction of area misreporting from Area IVa.
The stock identity of herring west of the British Isles was reviewed by the EU-funded project WESTHER. This identified VIaN as an area where catches comprise a mixture of fish from Areas VIaN, VIaS, and VIIaN. Concerning the management plan for VIaN, ICES has advised that herring components should be managed separately to afford maximum protection. If there is an increasing catch on the mixed fishery in VIaN, this should be considered in the management of the VIaS component which is in a depleted state. It will be a number of years before ICES can provide a fully operational integrated strategy for these units. In this context ICES recommends that the previously endorsed plans for VIaN should be continued (see Section 5.3.3.1). If the proposed management plan were to be implemented in 2008, the current low status of the stock would imply that the 15% TAC reduction limits would not apply.
Ecosystem considerationsIrregular cycles are shown in the productivity of herring stocks (weights-at-age and recruitment). There are many hypotheses as to the cause of these changes in productivity, but in most cases it is thought that the environment plays an important role (through transport, prey, and predation). Coincident periods of high and low production have been seen in the herring in VIa (N) and Irish Sea herring. Exploitation and management strategies must account for the likelihood of productivity changing. The VIa (N) herring stock has shown a marked decline in productivity during the late 1970s and has remained at a low level since then.