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Herring - Northwest of Scotland, 2006
Marine Resource  Fact Sheet
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Stock status report
Herring - Northwest of Scotland, 2006
Herring in Division VIa (North)
Fact Sheet Citation  
Owned byInternational Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES)   more>>
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Species:
Clupea harengus
Species thumbnail
Fao Names :  en - Atlantic herring, fr - Hareng de l'Atlantique, es - Arenque del Atlántico
Distribution of Herring - Northwest of Scotland
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Area Details Advanced search
Main Descriptors
Considered a single stock: Yes        Spatial Scale: Sub-Regional
Considered a management unit: Yes
 
 
Habitat and Biology
Depth zone: Shelf    Vertical distribution: Pelagic    

Geographical Distribution
Jurisdictional distribution: National

Water Area Overview
Spatial Scale: Sub-Regional

Geo References
Resource Structure
Considered a single stock: Yes
Exploitation
 

Factors affecting the fisheries and the stock


Changes in fishing technology and fishing patterns


Historically, catches have been taken from this area by three fisheries:

A Scottish domestic pair trawl fleet and the Northern Irish fleet operated in shallower, coastal areas, principally fishing in the Minches and around the Island of Barra in the south; younger herring are found in these areas. This fleet has reduced in recent years.
The Scottish single-boat trawl and purse-seine fleets, with refrigerated seawater tanks, targeting herring mostly in the northern North Sea, but also operating in the northern part of VIa (N). This fleet now operates mostly with trawls, but many vessels can deploy either gear.
An international freezer-trawler fishery has historically operated in deeper water near the shelf edge where older fish are distributed. These vessels are mainly registered in the Netherlands, Germany, France, and England, but most are Dutch owned.

In recent years the age structure of the catch of these last two fleets has become more similar. A stricter enforcement regime in the UK is responsible for the major decrease in area misreporting in 2006.
Assessment
 
Assessment Model
Assessment Model Entry
Data

Scientific basis


Data and methods


The acoustic survey used to tune the assessment has been re-evaluated and found to provide a useful, but noisy signal for tuning the assessment. Misreporting has decreased in 2006 and the quality of the catch data has improved.

Uncertainties in assessment and forecast


The assessment is considered to be noisy but unbiased. Medium-term evaluations of the management plan have been carried out assuming the same level of noise as seen in the assessment. This year the assessment of the current biomass is more certain than last year.
Overall Assessment Results

Exploitation boundaries in relation to high long-term yield, low risk of depletion of production potential and considering ecosystem effects


Fishing mortality is in the range of the target mortality of the proposed management plan, and this is expected to give a high long-term yield and a low risk of stock depletion.

Comparison with previous assessment and advice


There was no agreed assessment in 2006, but the data basis has improved and an assessment was agreed upon this year (figure 5.4.30.3). The basis for the advice has changed: last year it was based on status quo TAC, this year the advice is based on the proposed management plan.
Image 
Image 
Image 


Figure 5.4.30.1 Herring in Via (N). Landings, fishing mortality, recruitment and SSB.
Graphs 
Graphs 
Graphs 
Graphs 


Figure 5.4.30.2 Herring in VIa (N). Stock and recruitment; Yield and precautionary approach.

Graphs 

Figure 5.4.30.3 Herring in VIa (N). Historical performance of the assessments. Note: assessments prior to 2001 not comparable with recent assessments.

Landing table


Table 5.4.30.1 Herring in VIa (N). Catch in tonnes by country, 1983–2006. These figures do not in all cases correspond to the official statistics and cannot be used for management purposes.Landing table*WG estimate for 1997 has been revised according to the Bayesian assessment (see text Section 5.1.3 of 2000 report). $Revised at HAWG 2007.

Table 5.4.30.2 Herring in Division VIa (North).
Stock summary
Year Recruitment SSB Landings Mean F
- Age 1 - - Ages 3-6
  thousands tonnes tonnes  
1958 2212700 213788 59669 0.3105
1959 2207110 229855 65221 0.2810
1960 647460 266482 63759 0.1795
1961 1317900 266665 46353 0.1206
1962 2357340 255902 58195 0.1927
1963 2154720 279650 49030 0.1730
1964 993210 325431 64234 0.1454
1965 7931830 331998 68669 0.1519
1966 1073170 443967 100619 0.1850
1967 2509730 473104 90400 0.1843
1968 4107180 448629 84614 0.1400
1969 3000720 484835 107170 0.2366
1970 3441280 451154 165930 0.3534
1971 9575740 322203 207167 0.7801
1972 2676160 449079 164756 0.3621
1973 1075080 388257 210270 0.6026
1974 1674990 205535 178160 0.9531
1975 2116660 108162 114001 0.9061
1976 614530 74599 93642 1.0609
1977 626140 53217 41341 0.9779
1978 915990 50015 22156 0.6483
1979 1219400 76219 60 0.0007
1980 892140 126093 306 0.0004
1981 1667530 133595 51420 0.3585
1982 777670 111549 92360 0.6683
1983 3036180 82975 63523 0.7033
1984 1152680 123173 56012 0.5044
1985 1214240 152361 39142 0.3046
1986 904610 138659 70764 0.5066
1987 2148730 129575 44360 0.3274
1988 927030 155111 35591 0.2729
1989 880110 172862 34026 0.2369
1990 438460 164407 44693 0.3316
1991 384680 133997 28529 0.2442
1992 799660 110473 28985 0.2706
1993 602380 105026 31778 0.2373
1994 855320 96351 24430 0.2216
1995 668080 77034 29575 0.2562
1996 866000 123385 26105 0.1668
1997 1538700 79138 35233 0.4801
1998 482370 103762 33353 0.4445
1999 307380 87029 29736 0.3089
2000 1726800 75351 18322 0.2065
2001 955630 121998 24556 0.2303
2002 921180 137261 32914 0.2476
2003 363590 128104 28081 0.2288
2004 259390 110412 25021 0.2002
2005 168210 88261 14129 0.1264
2006 112240 77787 27346 0.2755
2007 604980* 74047    
Average 1602100 188370 61749 0.3532

* Geometric mean for the years 1989–2005.
Reference Point
 
Reference pointsUnchanged since 2004

Yield and spawning biomass per Recruit F-reference points
Reference points
  Fish Mort Yield/R SSB/R
  Ages 3–6    
Average last 3 years 0.20 0.04 0.16
Fmax N/A - -
F0.1 0.18 0.03 0.18
Fmed 0.22 0.04 0.15


Management evaluations suggested an Fmsy = 0.25.
Projection

Short-term implications


Outlook for 2008


Basis: F (2007)= 0.46; SSB (2007) = 66 510 t; landings (2007) = 34 000t (TAC constraint).
Outlook for 2008
Rationale Catches (2008) Basis F(2008) SSB(2009) % TAC change 1)
Zero catch 0 F=0 F=0 96900 -100%
Fint 2) 15003 F=0.2 F=0.2 75403 -56%
Flt 3) = Fmsy 18369 F=0.25 F=0.25 70914 -46%
Proportion F 21594 F= Flt*1.2 F=0.30 66730 -36%
Proportion F 24685 F= Flt*1.4 F=0.35 62828 -27%
Proportion F 27647 F= Flt*1.6 F=0.40 59189 -19%
F 2007 31036 F=0.46 F=0.46 55149 -9%

Weights in ‘000 tonnes. Shaded scenarios are not considered consistent with the precautionary approach.
1) TAC 2008 relative to TAC 2007.
2) Fint is the intermediate F of the suggested management plan.
3) Flt is the long-term F of the suggested management plan.
Scientific Advice

Single-stock exploitation boundaries


Exploitation boundaries in relation to existing management plans


Fishing according to the proposed management plan would imply catches up to 15 000 tonnes. The proposal was evaluated and found to be consistent with the precautionary approach.

Exploitation boundaries in relation to precautionary considerations


Precautionary reference points for fishing mortality have not been defined for this stock. Any management measure should have a high probability of avoiding Blim.

Conclusion on exploitation boundaries


In the absence of exploitation boundaries in relation to precautionary limits ICES recommends to fish according to the proposed management plan.

Management considerations


There has been considerable uncertainty in the level of landings from this area in the past. Recent revisions to catch data have reduced some of this uncertainty. Enforcement has improved since 2005 and catch figures are more accurate. In 2006 the stock was more heavily exploited than it has been since 1999. This recent increased F is associated with increased enforcement and reduction of area misreporting from Area IVa.

The stock identity of herring west of the British Isles was reviewed by the EU-funded project WESTHER. This identified VIaN as an area where catches comprise a mixture of fish from Areas VIaN, VIaS, and VIIaN. Concerning the management plan for VIaN, ICES has advised that herring components should be managed separately to afford maximum protection. If there is an increasing catch on the mixed fishery in VIaN, this should be considered in the management of the VIaS component which is in a depleted state. It will be a number of years before ICES can provide a fully operational integrated strategy for these units. In this context ICES recommends that the previously endorsed plans for VIaN should be continued (see Section 5.3.3.1). If the proposed management plan were to be implemented in 2008, the current low status of the stock would imply that the 15% TAC reduction limits would not apply.

Ecosystem considerations


Irregular cycles are shown in the productivity of herring stocks (weights-at-age and recruitment). There are many hypotheses as to the cause of these changes in productivity, but in most cases it is thought that the environment plays an important role (through transport, prey, and predation). Coincident periods of high and low production have been seen in the herring in VIa (N) and Irish Sea herring. Exploitation and management strategies must account for the likelihood of productivity changing. The VIa (N) herring stock has shown a marked decline in productivity during the late 1970s and has remained at a low level since then.
Management
Considered a management unit: Yes

Management Objectives

There are no explicit management objectives for this stock. However, a proposed management plan is currently being discussed. This management plan was evaluated by ICES in 2005 and found to be consistent with the precautionary approach.

Catch and TACs
Catch and TACsWeights in ‘000 t.
1) Adjusted for misreporting.
2) Catch at status quo F.
3) Revised down from 60 in 1999.
4) Revised at HAWG 2007.
5) Fint is the intermediate F of the suggested management plan.
Biological State and Trend
Exploitation rate:   F                   
Abundance level:   Undefined    

State of the stock
Based on the most recent estimates of SSB and fishing mortality, ICES considers that the stock is currently fluctuating at a low level and is being exploited slightly above Fmsy. The 2001 and 2002 yearclasses are very weak.
Source of information
 

Report of the Herring Assessment Working Group for the Area South of 62°N, 13–22 March 2007 (ICES CM 2007/ACFM:11).
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