Overall Assessment Results
Exploitation boundaries in relation to high long-term yield, low risk of depletion of production potential and considering ecosystem effectsThe current fishing mortality is estimated at 0.49, which is above the management plan target rate expected to lead to high long-term yields (F
mp = 0.3). Fishing at F
mp is expected to lead to landings of 46 600 t in 2008.
Comparison with previous assessment and adviceIn the present assessment, the age range has been extended to accommodate the 1999 year class as a true age group. Since conclusions regarding stock status remain similar to the previous assessment, the advice also remains similar.
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Figure Haddock in Subarea IV (North Sea) and Division IIIa (Skagerrak–Kattegat). Stock and recruitment.
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Figure Haddock in Subarea IV (North Sea) and Division IIIa (Skagerrak–Kattegat). Summary plots. The dotted horizontal lines indicate F
pa (top centre plot) and B
pa (bottom left plot), while the solid ones indicate F
lim (top centre plot) and B
lim (bottom left plot).
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Figure 6.4.3.3 Haddock in Subarea IV (North Sea) and Division IIIa (Skagerrak–Kattegat). Contributions of various catch components to the total catch.
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Figure 6.4.3.4 Haddock in Subarea IV (North Sea) and Division IIIa (Skagerrak–Kattegat). Historical performance of the assessments. Note: ages for mean fishing mortality has changed in 2004. Variations in estimated historical SSB since 2001 stem almost entirely from variability in the estimates of the 1999 year class in successive years.
LandingsTable 6.4.3.1 Haddock in Subarea IV and Division IIIa. Nominal catch (‘000 t) 1999–2006, as officially reported to ICES and estimated by ACFM.
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| Landings |
Table 6.4.3.2 Haddock in Subarea IV (North Sea) and Division IIIa.
LandingsAnnex 6.4.3 EU and Norway Management plan
“The plan shall consist of the following elements:
Every effort shall be made to maintain a minimum level of Spawning Stock Biomass greater than 100,000 tonnes (Blim).
For 2007 and subsequent years the Parties agreed to restrict their fishing on the basis of a TAC consistent with a fishing mortality rate of no more than 0.3 for appropriate age-groups, when the SSB in the end of the year in which the TAC is applied is estimated above 140,000 tonnes (Bpa).
Where the rule in paragraph 2 would lead to a TAC which deviates by more than 15% from the TAC of the preceding year the Parties shall establish a TAC that is no more than 15% greater or 15% less than the TAC of the preceding year.
Where the SSB referred to in paragraph 2 is estimated to be below Bpa but above Blim the TAC shall not exceed a level which will result in a fishing mortality rate equal to 0.3-0.2*(Bpa-SSB)/(Bpa-Blim). This consideration overrides paragraph 3.
Where the SSB referred to in paragraph 2 is estimated to be below Blim the TAC shall be set at a level corresponding to a total fishing mortality rate of no more than 0.1. This consideration overrides paragraph 3.
In order to reduce discarding and to increase the spawning stock biomass and the yield of haddock, the Parties agreed that the exploitation pattern shall, while recalling that other demersal species are harvested in these fisheries, be improved in the light of new scientific advice from inter alia ICES.
In the event that ICES advices that changes are required to the precautionary reference points Bpa (140 000t) or Blim (100 000t) the parties shall meet to review paragraphs 1-5.
No later than 31 December 2009, the parties shall review the arrangements in paragraphs 1 to 7 in order to ensure that they are consistent with the objective of the plan. This review shall be conducted after obtaining inter alia advice from ICES concerning the performance of the plan in relation to its objective.
This arrangement enters into force on 1 January 2007.”
Reference Point
Reference pointsYield and spawning biomass per Recruit F-reference points (from the 2004 assessment):
Reference points
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Fish Mort
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Yield/R
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SSB/R
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Ages 3–7
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Average last 3 years
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0.37
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0.004
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0.014
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Fmax
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0.32
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0.004
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0.016
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F0.1
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0.20
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0.004
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0.024
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Fmed
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0.50
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0.004
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0.010
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Candidates for reference points which are consistent with high long-term yields and a low risk of depleting the productive potential of the stock are in the range of F
0.1–F
max, and the current target F
y = 0.3 in the management plan is within this range.
Projection
Short-term implicationsOutlook for 2008Basis: TAC constraint on HC fishery, F = 0.38; R07–09 = (average of 5 lowest in 1994–2003) = 6494 million;
SSB(2008) = 317 000 t; HC landings (2007) = 58 000 t; Discards (2007) = 32 900 t; Industrial bycatch (2007) = 0 t.
Outlook for 2008Weights in ‘000 t.
Shaded scenarios are considered inconsistent with the precautionary approach.
1 Reduced to allow for industrial bycatch in 2008.
The option table is based on no industrial bycatch in 2007. Such bycatches are mainly taken in the Norway pout fishery which ICES advises should remain closed. If this fishery were to be opened in 2007, it would result in a small haddock bycatch. The forecast assumes that there will be an industrial bycatch in 2008, although this cannot be ascertained at present. However, this would not alter the haddock TAC for 2008 according to the management plan because this is based on the 15% restriction and not on a SSB consideration.
Scientific Advice
Single-stock exploitation boundariesExploitation boundaries in relation to existing management plansAt the present SSB level, F should be less or equal to 0.3 to be in accordance with the management plan which also dictates that the TAC change shall be subject to a limit of 15% change. In this case the 15% limit is the determining factor and corresponds to landings of less than 49 300 t in 2008, which is expected to lead to an SSB of 306 000 t in 2009.
Exploitation boundaries in relation to precautionary considerationsThe fishing mortality in 2008 should be at or below F
pa, corresponding to human consumption catches of no more than 96 100 t in 2008.
Conclusion on exploitation boundariesThe agreed management plan can be provisionally accepted as precautionary and ICES therefore advises according to this plan. This implies a TAC of 49 300 t in 2008, which should include industrial bycatch..
Management considerationsInformation on fishing effort indicates significant reductions in the fleet sectors taking the largest proportion of haddock. In addition , the minimum mesh size has been increased in recent years and gear selectivity measures have been introduced to allow for the release of small fish. The reduction in effort and the technical measures may have led to the significant reduction in fishing mortality in the recent past. However, discarding still occurs and is substantial (29% by weight, average 2002–2005), particularly as is currently the case when larger year classes recruit to the fishery.
The stock and fishery are presently dominated by the strong 1999 year class, followed by a sequence of poor recruitment through 2004. Nevertheless, it is expected that the spawning stock will remain stable in 2007 and 2008 because of the remaining 1999 year class and the recruitment of the moderately-sized 2005 year class.
The advice on landings assumes that the industrial fishery bycatch will be 0 t in 2007 and that the fraction of the catch-at-age that is discarded remains stable. For 2007, that would imply discards of 32 900 t.
Reducing discards would improve landing opportunities.
The June advice includes information on several North Sea stocks, advice that previously has only been available in October. This change is intended to allow more time for stakeholder consultations. ICES has introduced this change on an experimental basis and will evaluate the implications in the autumn. Changing the timing of the advice will also have effects on the workplans in the scientific laboratories and in the expert groups. The yield projections are based on data including the 1st quarter of 2007 (e.g. 1st quarter IBTS). For stocks like cod, haddock, plaice, and sole there will be new recruitment information from the 3rd quarter surveys. ICES will only issue an updated advice if these surveys provide a very different perspective on the short-term developments.
Management plan evaluationsThe evaluations of the management plan have been carried out using a recruitment model which is thought to capture the sporadic nature of haddock recruitment. On this basis, a target
F = 0
.3 with TAC constraint ±15% leads to a low risk of <12% in any year, and a mean risk of 5% over all years of
B < Blim over the next 20 years. Lower Fs lead to lower risks.
Although the management plan has not been fully tested (e.g. at lower fishing mortalities), ICES concludes that the management plan can be provisionally accepted as precautionary and be used as the basis for advice.
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