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Atlantic Cod - Flemish Cap
Fact Sheet Title  Fact Sheet
Stocks management recommendations 2022
Atlantic Cod - Flemish Cap
Fact Sheet Citation  
Cod in Div. 3M
Owned byNorthwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) – ownership
ident Blockident Blockdisplay tree map
 
Species List:
Species Ref: en - Atlantic cod, fr - Morue de l'Atlantique, es - Bacalao del Atlántico, zh - 大西洋鳕, ru - Треска атлантическая
ident Block Atlantic Cod - Flemish Cap
Aq Res
Biological Stock: Yes         Value: Regional
Management unit: Yes        Reference year: 2021
 
 
Aq Res State Trend
Aq Res State Trend
Aq Res State Trend Aq Res State Trend
Aq Res State TrendModerate Fishing MortalityModerate fishing mortalityGreen
Aq Res State TrendIntermediate Stock SizeIntermediate abundance

SSB has been declining rapidly since 2017 but is still estimated to be above Blim (median 15 037 t). The 2021 estimated recruitment showed a positive signal after a period of lower recruitment. Fishing mortality has remained below Flim (median 0.166) since the fishery reopened in 2010.
Habitat Bio
Climatic Zone: Temperate.   Bottom Type: Unspecified.   Depth Zone: Slope - Deepslope (500 m - 1000 m).   Horizontal Dist: Oceanic.   Vertical Dist: Demersal/Benthic.  

Geo Dist
Geo Dist: High Seas Purely

Water Area Overview
Spatial Scale: Regional

Water Area Overview
Aq Res Struct
Biological Stock: Yes

Exploit
 

Cod is caught in directed trawl and longline fisheries and as bycatch in the directed redfish fishery by trawlers. The fishery is regulated by quota. New technical regulations were introduced in 2021, in particular a closure of the directed fishery in the first quarter as well as sorting grids to protect juveniles.

Recent catch estimates and TACs (000 t) are as follows:

Effects of the fishery on the ecosystem

The impact of bottom fishing activities on major VMEs in the NRA was last assessed in 2021. The risk of Significant Adverse Impacts (SAIs) on sponge and large gorgonian VMEs was assessed to be low, while this risk for sea pen VMEs has been assessed as intermediate. The risks of SAIs on small gorgonian, black coral, bryozoan and sea squirt VMEs were assessed as high. A number of areas in the Flemish Cap (3M) EPU have been closed to fishing to protect VMEs.
Bio Assess
 
Results
Ref Point
 
Blim = SSB2007 Median = 15 037 tonnes of spawning biomass (Scientific Council, 2022).
Flim = F30%SPR Median = 0.166 (Scientific Council, 2022)


Projection

Although advice is given only for 2023, projection results are shown to 2025 to illustrate the medium-term implications. Fbar is the mean of the F at ages 3-5 and used as the indicator of overall fishing mortality; Fsq is the status quo F, calculated as the mean of the last three years Fbar (2019-2021)

The results indicate that under all scenarios with Fbar>0, total biomass during the projected years will decrease, whereas the SSB is projected to increase slightly in 2025 except in all scenarios with F≥2/3 Flim (Table 1). The probability of SSB being below Blim in 2024 is low (≤3%) in all the scenarios (Table 2). The probability of SSB in 2025 being above that in 2022 ranges between 9% and 100%, depending on the scenario.

Under all scenarios, the probability of Fbar exceeding Flim is less than or equal to 3% in 2023 and 2024 except for Flim as expected.

SC notes that projected values of risk, in particular more than one year ahead (Table 2), will be inherently more uncertain than the projected median stock sizes (Table 1). The risks are typically derived from the tails of a probability distribution which are less precisely estimated compared to the median (centre) of the same distribution.
Assess Models
Analytical assessment
Results

A Bayesian SCAA model, introduced at the 2018 benchmark, was used as the basis for the assessment of this stock with data from 1988 to 2021.

The next full assessment for this stock will be in 2023.

Fishing Mortality

Recruitment

Biomass

Human impact

Mainly fishery related mortality. Other sources (e.g. pollution, shipping, oil-industry) are undocumented.

Biological and environmental interactions

Redfish, shrimp and smaller cod are important prey items for cod. Recent studies indicate strong trophic interactions between these species in the Flemish Cap.

A 2018 summary of the state of the fish community in the Flemish Cap (3M) EPU indicated that this ecosystem has not experienced sustained reductions in overall productivity observed in other EPUs. With the exception of a short-lived increase in 2005-2009, total biomass has remained fairly stable over time despite the changes in individual stocks.
Management
Management unit: Yes

Advice

Recommendation for 2023

Yield corresponding to F less than or equal to 3/4 Flim in 2023 results in a very low probability (≤10%) of SSB being below Blim in 2024 and a very low probability (≤10%) of exceeding Flim.

However, given the present level of the SSB and projected decline of total biomass under any fishing scenario, in order to promote growth in SSB with more than 60% probability, SC advises scenarios with F no more than Fsq.
Objectives

No explicit management plan or management objectives have been defined by the Commission. Convention General Principles are applied (NAFO GC Doc. 07-04).

Stock definition for management purposes

The cod stock in Flemish Cap (NAFO Div. 3M) is considered to be a separate population.
Sources
 
Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) Scientific Council Documents SCS Doc. 22/06, 22/07, 22/08, 22/13 and SCR Doc. 22/04, 22/12, 22/25. Click to openhttps://www.nafo.int/Library/Science/SC-Documents
Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO). 2022. Report of the Scientific Council Meeting, 03 – 16 June, 2022. NAFO SCS Doc. 22/18. Click to openhttps://www.nafo.int/Portals/0/PDFs/sc/2022/scs22-18.pdf
Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO). 2008. Resolution on the Interpretation and Implementation of the Convention on the Future Multilateral Cooperation in the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries. 30th Annual Meeting – September 2008. NAFO/GC Doc. 08/3. Click to openhttp://archive.nafo.int/open/gc/2008/gcdoc08-03.pdf
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